The most burning photovoltaic overcapacity worries

2022-07-31
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"From silicon materials, silicon wafers, cells and modules to the resin viscosity inverter, glass and other auxiliary materials, the photovoltaic capacity has expanded in an all-round way, and the signs of overcapacity have appeared again." A person in the photovoltaic industry told that due to the large-scale expansion of photovoltaic enterprises, the overcapacity crisis ten years ago is likely to repeat

however, it seems that large PV companies are not worried about this. In their view, for the photovoltaic industry with rapid technological iteration, overcapacity itself is a source power that forces enterprises to continuously upgrade technology and reduce manufacturing costs. When talking about the production capacity, a relevant person of Zhonghuan shares said: "the supply of 210 silicon wafer market exceeds the demand, and there is no worry of overcapacity."

the representative of Longji Co., Ltd. also said, "the demand of the entire photovoltaic market is about GW, while the supply is 200GW, which is indeed excess from the perspective of figures alone. However, the shortage of silicon materials limits the release of capacity of silicon wafer enterprises, and will lead to structural overcapacity, not overcapacity of the entire industrial chain."

at the "seminar on the development review of the photovoltaic industry in 2020 and the situation outlook in 2021" held recently, Holly's photovoltaic analysts said that this year's overcapacity is not necessarily a bad thing, which will help to reduce the price of the whole photovoltaic industry chain. "Taking the selling price of solar cells as an example, from the off-season of March 2021 to the third quarter of 2021, the price will continue to fall by 27%-36%. Excess capacity is conducive to reducing the manufacturing cost of the photovoltaic industry."

"driven by the goal of carbon neutrality, China's photovoltaic manufacturing capacity will continue to expand, the industrial chain supply chain will continue to optimize, the international advantage will continue to strengthen, at the same time, the industrial concentration will further improve, the industrial cluster effect will be more obvious, and the technology upgrading will be accelerated." The above analysts believe that moderate overcapacity will help to improve the technology iteration speed of the photovoltaic industry

at present, leading photovoltaic enterprises maintain the industry voice, market position and scale effect through production expansion; The second and third tier enterprises try to share the dividends brought by the high growth of the industry by expanding production, and share the production costs, so as to avoid being dragged down by the price war. Therefore, according to those in the industry who are actually load elongation curves (see Figure), expanding production at the current time point is an inevitable choice for enterprises to make a living

wangbohua, Secretary General of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, pointed out that this year, China's photovoltaic market will enter a new stage of rapid development under the guidance of carbon neutrality. "In 2020, the domestic PV installed capacity will be 48.2gw, far exceeding the industry expectation, and the new installed capacity will reach GW in 2021; at the same time, large-scale and high-power products will enter the rapid volume stage, the proportion of 210+182 large-scale silicon wafers will increase rapidly, and the market share of 158.75 large-scale PV silicon wafers in the past will drop to about 5%; 500W and 600W high-power products will quickly enter the market, and PV will truly enter the 'big' era."

looking at the development trend of China's photovoltaic enterprises this year through the hidden worry of overcapacity, liuyiyang, Deputy Secretary General of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, believes that it is still necessary to take technological progress as the core competitiveness of enterprise development. "Even if users choose their own experimental equipment, technological progress is the guarantee for the industry to continue to reduce costs in the future. In recent years, China's photovoltaic technology has developed rapidly, such as the large-scale application of single crystal perc cells, the application of large-size silicon wafers, and the rapid development of component technologies such as double-sided, half piece, MBB, and laminated tiles, which have greatly promoted the cost reduction and efficiency improvement of the whole industry."

"in addition, enterprises should also strengthen the research and development of high-efficiency batteries and high-power components, promote the application of advanced battery technology, tracking system, AI intelligent operation and maintenance and other solutions, and promote the continuous decline of industry costs and the continuous improvement of enterprise core competitiveness." Liu Yiyang added

from the perspective of the form of photovoltaic industry, the application scenarios of photovoltaic in the future are very rich, and a development path with multiple modes can be formed. According to the "China Renewable Energy Outlook study" issued by the Energy Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, considering only buildings, railways, highways, water surfaces, agricultural facilities, etc., the application potential of PV is more than 800million kW. If other applications are added, the potential will exceed 1billion kW

Liu Yiyang believes that the reduction of the cost of photovoltaic power generation can further stimulate the market vitality. The "photovoltaic +" model will bring more application possibilities. Applications such as "photovoltaic + industry", "photovoltaic + Architecture", "photovoltaic + transportation", "photovoltaic + communication" and "photovoltaic + agriculture" will also further expand the photovoltaic market space and achieve a win-win situation between the production end and the application end

in view of how the photovoltaic industry will develop in an integrated way this year, Luchuan, President of Zhejiang Chint New Energy Development Co., Ltd., believes that China has been in the forefront of "photovoltaic + agriculture", and there is a control system for universal tensile testing machine, hoping to promote the better development of the industry through the cash out of the normal compensation mechanism of agricultural photovoltaic complementary facilities

"The 'PV + sea/Fishing' approach is applicable to the southeast coast of China, which is conducive to solving the land shortage in the East; the 'PV + energy storage', 'PV + wind power' and 'PV + hydrogen production' have all contributed to the new PV application mode in China; the intelligent application of household PV, the complementary application of 'PV + base station' and the realization of green power travel by 'PV + transportation' should also be gradually promoted to realize green power travel at the whole social level Electrical applications. " Luchuan believes that "maneuvering" will broaden the road of photovoltaic development

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